Welcome to my brand-new series, “Regression or Undervalued?”, where I will be looking at various players who are being projected for a regression and argue whether I find this to be is accurate. In today’s episode, I’m going to be analyzing Green Bay Packer’s running back Aaron Jones and breaking down why he is slated for a REGRESSION in the 2020 season.
Coming off a monstrous 2019 campaign, Aaron Jones ultimately finished as the full PPR running back #2, only behind Christian McCaffrey. He finished the season with 1,558 all-purpose yards and tied McCaffrey for a league leading 16 total touchdowns. What’s even more impressive is Aaron Jones did this while seeing limited carries, losing numerous downs to pass-catching back Jamaal Williams. Because of this, the only place for Jones to go is down.
Looking towards the 2020 season, experts have projected Jones to see a regression in every stat category, leaving him to be the #11 full PPR running back at the end of the season. I do agree with this, but not because of Jones’ ability. As a running back, Jones is deadly with the ball in his hands not only on the ground but through the air as well. He did have a few drops last season, but nonetheless reeled in almost 3 receptions per game while losing a majority of 3rd downs to Jamaal Williams. The problem for Jones’ 2020 outlook isn’t his ability, but rather his usage within the Packers’ offense.
Rather than getting help at wideout for Aaron Rodgers and Jones, Matt Lafleur and the Packers went and drafted a quarterback and a running back in their first two rounds For Jones, while already having the threat of losing downs to Jamaal Williams, he now has the addition of AJ Dillon to the backfield. One could argue that Dillon was drafted to replace Williams, but AJ Dillon isn’t a pass-catching back, as he only caught 21 passes in his senior campaign at Boston College. Sitting at a massive 247 pounds, Dillon has been and is often compared to Titans’ workhorse Derrick Henry. This leads me to believe that the Packers have more in mind for Dillon than just a simple 3rd down back.
Jones heads into the 2020 season with a crowded backfield. Although he will be the clear-cut lead back, it is hard to project in what ways the Packers will use or not use a committee. Aaron Jones is therefore a clear boom or bust candidate, more than he already was in the 2019 season. It is because of this I believe that he is slated for a regression. 3 down Aaron Jones is a scary man, and when given the ball he can produce. The problem is how much the Packers are willing to feed him the ball. I would love to see him being given 18-22 touches a game in 2020 like he should be given, but I just don’t see this happening in the crowded yet talented backfield that Green Bay fosters. I still see him finishing in the top 10 but watch out for a REGRESSION from the 4th year running back.
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